Ukusuka kwimo yophuhliso lwee-giants zaseYurophu zokupakisha ukubona indlela yoshishino lweekhathoni ngo-2023.
Kulo nyaka, izigebenga zokupakisha iibhokisi zaseYurophu ziye zagcina ingeniso ephezulu nangona imeko isiya isiba maxongo, kodwa ukuphumelela kwazo kunokuthatha ixesha elingakanani? Lilonke, u-2022 iya kuba ngunyaka onzima kwizigebenga ezinkulu zokupakisha iibhokisi. Ngokunyuka kweendleko zamandla kunye neendleko zabasebenzi, iinkampani eziphezulu zaseYurophu ezibandakanya iSchmofi Kappa Group kunye neDesma Group nazo zinzima ukujongana namaxabiso ephepha.
Ngokwabahlalutyi baseJeffries, ukusukela ngo-2020, ixabiso leebhokisi ezisetyenzisiweyo ezisetyenzisiweyo, eyona nxalenye ibalulekileyo yokupakishwa kwemveliso yamaphepha, sele iphindwe kabini eYurophu. Kungenjalo, iindleko zecontainerboard enyulu eyenziwe ngokuthe ngqo kwizigodo kuneebhokisi eziphinda zisetyenziswe zilandele umkhondo ofanayo. Kwangaxeshanye, abathengi abajonga indleko bayayinciphisa inkcitho yabo kwi-Intanethi, nto leyo enciphisa imfuno yeebhokisi.
Iintsuku zozuko zakha zaziswa ngubhubhani omtsha wesithsaba, onje ngeeodolo ezisebenza ngokuzeleyo, ukubonelelwa ngeebhokisi zeebhokisi, kunye nokunyuka kwamaxabiso esitokhwe seengxilimbela zokupakisha…konke oku kuphelile. Nangona kunjalo, nangona kunjalo, ezi nkampani zenza ngcono kunangaphambili. I-Smurfi Kappa isandul 'ukuxela i-43% yokunyuka kwemivuzo ngaphambi kwenzala, irhafu, ukuhla kwexabiso kunye nokunciphisa i-amortization ukususela ngoJanuwari ukuya ekupheleni kukaSeptemba, ngelixa ingeniso yokusebenza inyuke ngeyesithathu. Oko kuthetha ukuba ingeniso yayo ka-2022 kunye nengeniso yemali sele igqithile kumanqanaba angaphambi kobhubhane, nangona iyikota yendlela eya ekupheleni kuka-2022.
Ngeli xesha, i-Desma, inombolo yokuqala yase-UK yokupakisha ipakethe, inyuse uqikelelo lwayo lonyaka ukuya kuma-30 kuTshazimpuzi ka-2023, yathi inzuzo yokusebenza ehlengahlengisiweyo kwisiqingatha sokuqala kufuneka ibe yi-£ 400 yezigidi, xa ithelekiswa ne-2019 yayiyi-351 yezigidi zeeponti. Esinye isigebenga sokupakisha, i-Mondi, inyuse umda wayo osisiseko ngeepesenti ezi-3, ngaphezulu kokuphinda kabini inzuzo yayo kwisiqingatha sokuqala sonyaka, ngaphandle kwemiba engekasonjululwa kwishishini layo elinameva laseRussia.
Uhlaziyo lokurhweba luka-Desma luka-Okthobha lwalumbalwa kwiinkcukacha, kodwa lukhankanye “imithamo esezantsi kancinane yeebhokisi zamathako ezithelekisekayo”. Ngokunjalo, ukukhula olomeleleyo kweSmurf Kappa ayisosiphumo sokuthengisa iibhokisi ezininzi-intengiso yebhokisi yethati yayithe tyaba kwiinyanga ezilithoba zokuqala zika-2022 kwaye yehle nge-3% kwikota yesithathu. Ngokuchasene noko, ezi zigebenga zonyusa ingeniso yamashishini ngokunyusa amaxabiso eemveliso.
Ukongezelela, umthamo wokurhweba awubonakali uphuculwe. Kumnxeba wokufumana umvuzo kule nyanga, ingqonyela yakwaSmurfi Kappa uTony Smurphy uthe: “Umthamo wentengiselwano kwikota yesine ufana kakhulu nowawubone kwikota yesithathu. Ukuchola. Ewe kunjalo, ndicinga ukuba ezinye iimarike ezifana ne-UK kunye neJamani bezithe tyaba kwezi nyanga zimbini okanye zintathu zidlulileyo.
Oku kubuza umbuzo: kuya kwenzeka ntoni kumzi mveliso webhokisi yentsimbi ngo-2023? Ukuba imarike kunye nemfuno yabathengi yokupakisha ngamalahle iqala ukuhla, ngaba abavelisi bezinto ezipakishwe ngamalahle baqhubeleka nokunyusa amaxabiso ukuze bafumane iingeniso eziphezulu? Abahlalutyi balonwabele uhlaziyo lweSmurfKappa ngenxa yobunzima obungasemva kunye nokuhanjiswa kweebhokisi ezibuthathaka kuxelwe ekhaya. Kwangaxeshanye, uSmurfi Kappa wagxininisa ukuba iqela "linothelekiso olunamandla ngokungaqhelekanga kulo nyaka uphelileyo, inqanaba ebesisoloko silijonga njengelingenakugcinwa".
Nangona kunjalo, abatyali-mali bathandabuza kakhulu. Izabelo zeSmurfi Kappa zingaphantsi ngama-25% kunokuphakama kobhubhane, kwaye iDesmar's iphantsi ngama-31%. Ngubani olungile? Impumelelo ayixhomekekanga kuphela kwiibhokisi kunye neentengiso zebhodi. Abahlalutyi baseJefferies baqikelela ukuba amaxabiso ebhodi esetyenzisiweyo aya kuwa ngenxa yemfuno ebuthathaka enkulu, kodwa aphinde agxininise ukuba iindleko zephepha kunye neendleko zamandla nazo ziyehla, kuba oku kuthetha ukuba iindleko zokuvelisa ukupakishwa ziyehla.
“Into edla ngokungahoywa, ngokombono wethu, kukuba iindleko eziphantsi zinokunyusa okukhulu kwimivuzo kwaye ekugqibeleni, kubavelisi bebhokisi ebotshiweyo, inzuzo yokongiwa kweendleko iya kuba yindleko yawo nawaphi na amaxabiso ebhokisi asezantsi. Kuye kwaboniswa ngaphambili ukuba oku kunamathele ngakumbi kwindlela ehlayo (i-3-6 inyanga ye-lag). Lilonke, ingeniso evela kumaxabiso aphantsi ithotywa ngokuyinxenye ziindleko ezivela kwingeniso. ” umhlalutyi eJeffries Say.
Ngelo xesha, umbuzo weemfuno ngokwawo awukho ngqo ngokupheleleyo. Nangona urhwebo lwe-e-commerce kunye nokucotha kuye kwabeka izisongelo ezithile ekusebenzeni kweenkampani zokupakisha ezinodaka, esona sabelo sikhulu sokuthengiswa kwala maqela sihlala kwamanye amashishini. E-Desma, malunga ne-80% yengeniso evela kwiimpahla zabathengi ezihamba ngokukhawuleza (FMCG), ezizimveliso ezithengiswa kwiivenkile ezinkulu, kwaye malunga ne-70% ye-Smurfi Kappa yokupakishwa kweekhathoni inikezelwa kubathengi be-FMCG. Oku kufanele kungqineke kunokomelela njengoko imarike yokugqibela ikhula, kwaye iDesma iqaphele ukukhula okuhle kwiindawo ezinjengokutshintshwa kweplastiki.
Ke ngelixa imfuno iguquguquka, akunakwenzeka ukuba iwe phantsi kwinqanaba elithile - ngakumbi xa kunikwa ukubuya kwabathengi bemizi-mveliso ebethwe kakhulu ngubhubhani we-COVID-19. Oku kuxhaswa ziziphumo zakutsha nje ezivela kwi-MacFarlane (MACF), ephawule ukunyuka kwe-14% kwingeniso kwiinyanga ezintandathu zokuqala ze-2022 njengendlela yokubuyisela kwi-aviation, ubunjineli kunye nabathengi abanobubele ngaphezu kokunciphisa ukucotha ekuthengeni kwi-intanethi.
Abapakisheli bemali ebotshiweyo nabo basebenzisa ubhubhane ukuphucula amaxwebhu abo okulinganisa. I-CEO yakwaSmurfi Kappa uTony Smurphy ugxininise ukuba ubume benkampani yakhe “bukwesona sikhundla sibalaseleyo sakha sasibona” kwimbali yethu, ngetyala/ingeniso ngaphambi kokuhlawula amatyeli angaphantsi kwe-1.4. Umlawuli oyintloko we-Desmar u-Myles Roberts uphinde wachaza oko ngoSeptemba, esithi amatyala / umvuzo weqela lakhe ngaphambi kokuba umlinganiselo we-amortization wehle ukuya ku-1.6 amaxesha, "enye yezona zilinganiso ziphantsi esizibonileyo kwiminyaka emininzi".
Konke oku kongeza kwintsingiselo abanye abahlalutyi bakholelwa ukuba imakethi iyabaxa, ngakumbi ngokumalunga nabapakisheli be-FTSE 100, amaxabiso asezantsi ukuya kutsho kuma-20% kunoqikelelo lwemvumelwano ngemivuzo ngaphambi kohlaziyo. Uqikelelo lwabo ngokuqinisekileyo lunomtsalane, kunye neDesma irhweba nge-P/E engaphambili ye-8.7 xa ithelekiswa ne-avareji yeminyaka emihlanu ye-11.1, kunye nomlinganiselo we-P/E we-Schmurf Kappa we-10.4 xa uthelekiswa nomyinge weminyaka emihlanu we-12.3. Okuninzi kuya kuxhomekeka kwisakhono senkampani sokuqinisekisa abatyali-mali ukuba banokuqhubeka nokumangala ngo-2023.
Ixesha lokuposa: Dec-13-2022