Ukujonga indlela elihamba ngayo ishishini leekhathoni ngo-2023 ukusuka kwimeko yophuhliso lweenkampani ezinkulu zokupakisha ezirhabaxa zaseYurophu
Kulo nyaka, iinkampani ezinkulu zokupakisha iikhathoni eYurophu zigcine inzuzo ephezulu phantsi kwemeko eyonakeleyo, kodwa ingakanani ixesha lokuphumelela kwazo? Ngokubanzi, u-2022 uza kuba ngunyaka onzima kwiinkampani ezinkulu zokupakisha iikhathoni. Ngenxa yokunyuka kweendleko zamandla kunye neendleko zabasebenzi, iinkampani eziphambili zaseYurophu, kuquka iSmurf Cappa Group kunye neDesma Group, nazo zisebenza nzima ukujongana nengxaki yamaxabiso ephepha.Ibhokisi yephepha
Ngokutsho kwabahlalutyi bakaJeffries, ukususela ngo-2020, njengenxalenye ebalulekileyo yokuveliswa kwephepha lokupakisha, ixabiso lekhadibhodi ephinda isetyenziswe eYurophu liphantse laphindeka kabini. Ukongeza, ixabiso lebhodi yebhokisi yendalo eyenziwe ngokuthe ngqo kwiingodo endaweni yeebhokisi eziphinda isetyenziswe lilandela indlela efanayo yophuhliso. Kwangaxeshanye, abathengi abaqaphela iindleko banciphisa inkcitho yabo kwi-intanethi, nto leyo enciphisa imfuno yeebhokisi. Ibhegi yephepha
Iminyaka ezukileyo eyaziswa yi-COVID-19, efana nee-odolo ezisebenza ngokupheleleyo, ukuhanjiswa kwebhokisi encinci, kunye namaxabiso aphezulu esitokhwe seenkampani ezinkulu zokupakisha, zonke ziphelile. Nangona kunjalo, nangona kunjalo, ukusebenza kwezi nkampani kungcono kunangaphambili. ISmurfit Cappa isanda kubika ukuba i-EBITDA yayo inyuke ngama-43% ukusuka ekupheleni kukaJanuwari ukuya kuSeptemba, ngelixa ingeniso yayo yokusebenza nayo inyuke ngesithathu. Oku kuthetha ukuba nangona kusekho ikota yexesha ngaphambi kokuphela kuka-2022, ingeniso yayo kunye nenzuzo yayo yemali ngo-2022 idlule kwinqanaba ngaphambi kobhubhane we-COVID-19.
Okwangoku, iDesma, inkampani enkulu yokupakisha eneentsimbi e-UK, inyuse uqikelelo lwayo lonyaka ukusukela nge-30 ka-Epreli 2023, isithi inzuzo yokusebenza elungisiweyo kwisiqingatha sokuqala sonyaka kufuneka ibe ubuncinane yi-400 yezigidi zeepawundi, xa kuthelekiswa ne-351 yezigidi zeepawundi ngo-2019. IMengdi, enye inkampani enkulu yokupakisha, yonyuse umda wayo wenzuzo esisiseko ngama-3 ekhulwini kwaye yaphinda kabini inzuzo yayo kwisiqingatha sokuqala salo nyaka, nangona iseneshishini laseRashiya elikwimeko enzima ngakumbi ngenxa yeengxaki ezingasonjululwanga.Ibhokisi yomnqwazi
Iinkcukacha zohlaziyo lwentengiselwano yeDesma ngo-Okthobha bezimbalwa, kodwa ikhankanye ukuba “utshintsho lweebhokisi ezifanayo ezirhangqiweyo luphantsi kancinci”. Ngokufanayo, ukukhula okunamandla kweSmurf Cappa akubangelwa kukuthengiswa kweebhokisi ezininzi – ukuthengiswa kwayo kweebhokisi ezirhangqiweyo kwahlala kungaguquki kwiinyanga ezilithoba zokuqala zika-2022, kwaye kwada kwehla nge-3% kwikota yesithathu. Ngokwahlukileyo koko, ezi zigebenga zonyusa inzuzo yazo ngokunyusa ixabiso leemveliso zazo.Ibhokisi yekepusi yebaseball
Ukongeza, ukuthengiswa kwezabelo akubonakali ngathi kuphucukile. Kwingxelo yezemali kule nyanga, uTony Smurf, i-CEO yeSmurf Cappa, uthe: “Umthamo worhwebo kwikota yesine ufana kakhulu noko sikubonileyo kwikota yesithathu. Sihlala silindele ukuba siphinde sibuyele esiqhelweni ngeKrisimesi. Ewe, ndicinga ukuba ezinye iimarike ezifana neBritane neJamani zisebenze kancinci kwiinyanga ezimbini okanye ezintathu ezidlulileyo.”
Oku kukhokelela kumbuzo othi: Kuza kwenzeka ntoni kushishino lweebhokisi ezirhabaxa ngo-2023? Ukuba imakethi kunye nemfuno yabathengi yokupakisha okurhabaxa iqala ukuzinza, ngaba abavelisi bokupakisha okurhabaxa banokuqhubeka nokunyusa amaxabiso ukuze bafumane inzuzo ephezulu? Ngenxa yemvelaphi enzima ye-macro kunye nokuthunyelwa kweebhokisi ezibuthathaka ezibikwe eMelika, abahlalutyi bayonwabile ngohlaziyo lweSmurf Cappa. Kwangaxeshanye, iSmurfikapa igxininise ukuba "uthelekiso phakathi kweqela nonyaka ophelileyo lunamandla kakhulu, kwaye sisoloko sikholelwa ukuba eli linqanaba elingaguqukiyo". Ibhokisi yesipho yeKrisimesi
Nangona kunjalo, abatyali-mali banamathandabuzo kakhulu. Ixabiso lesabelo sikaSmurf Cappa laliphantsi ngama-25% kunencopho yobhubhane, kwaye ixabiso lesabelo sikaDesma lehle ngama-31%. Ngubani ochanekile? Impumelelo ayixhomekekanga kuphela ekuthengisweni kwekhathoni kunye nekhadibhodi. Abahlalutyi bakaJeffries baxele kwangaphambili ukuba ngenxa yemfuno encinci ye-macro, ixabiso lekhadibhodi ephinda isetyenziswe liza kuhla, kodwa bakwagxininisa ukuba ixabiso lephepha elilahliweyo kunye namandla nalo liyahla, kuba oko kuthetha ukuba ixabiso lokuvelisa ukupakisha liyahla.
“Ngokwembono yethu, into edla ngokungananzwa kukuba iindleko eziphantsi zinokuba nefuthe elikhulu kwingeniso. Okokugqibela, kubavelisi beebhokisi ezirhabaxa, iingenelo zokunciphisa iindleko ziya kubonakala ngaphambi kwanoma yiliphi ixabiso eliphantsi lebhokisi, elinobukrakra ngakumbi kwinkqubo yokwehla (ixesha elingaphantsi kweenyanga ezi-3-6). Ngokubanzi, ingeniso engalindelekanga evela kumaxabiso aphantsi incitshiswa kancinci yingeniso engalindelekanga.” Batsho abahlalutyi bakaJeffries. Ibhokisi yeempahla
Kwangaxeshanye, ingxaki yemfuno ngokwayo ayilula ngokupheleleyo. Nangona urhwebo lwe-e-commerce kunye nokucotha kube yingozi ethile ekusebenzeni kweenkampani zokupakisha ezirhabaxa, isabelo esikhulu sentengiso sala maqela sidla ngokuba kwamanye amashishini. EDesma, malunga ne-80% yengeniso ivela kwiimpahla zabathengi ezihamba ngokukhawuleza (FMCG), eziziimveliso ezithengiswa kakhulu kwiivenkile ezinkulu. Malunga ne-70% yokupakisha kwebhokisi yeSmurf Cappa inikezelwa kubathengi be-FMCG. Ngophuhliso lwemarike yesiphelo, oku kufanele kubonakale kuguquguquka. IDesma iqaphele ukukhula okuhle kokutshintshwa kweplastiki kunye neminye imimandla.
Ngoko ke, nangona kukho ukuguquguquka kwemfuno, akunakwenzeka ukuba iwele ngaphantsi kwenqanaba elithile - ingakumbi xa ucinga ngokubuya kwabathengi bemizi-mveliso abaye bachaphazeleka kakhulu yi-COVID-19. Oku kuxhaswa yindlela esebenze ngayo iMacFarlane (MACF) kutshanje, ebonise ukuba ukubuyiselwa kwabathengi kwimizi-mveliso yeenqwelo moya, ubunjineli kunye neehotele kunciphisa impembelelo yokucotha kokuthenga kwi-intanethi, kwaye ingeniso yenkampani inyuke nge-14% kwiinyanga ezintandathu zokuqala zika-2022.
Abapakishi beekhonkrithi basebenzisa olu bhubhane ukuphucula amaphepha abo okulinganisela. UTony Smoffey, i-CEO yeSmoffey Kappa, ugxininise ukuba isakhiwo senkampani yakhe “sikwimeko entle kwimbali yethu”, kwaye inzuzo yetyala/ngaphambi kokuhlawulwa kwemali yayingaphantsi kwe-1.4 amaxesha. UMiles Roberts, i-CEO yeDesma, uvumile oku ngoSeptemba, esithi umlinganiselo wenzuzo yetyala/ngaphambi kokuhlawulwa kwemali yeqela uye wehla waya kumaxesha ayi-1.6, “ongomnye wemilinganiselo ephantsi kakhulu kwiminyaka emininzi”.ibhokisi yokuthumela
Konke oku xa kudibene kuthetha ukuba abanye abahlalutyi bakholelwa ukuba imakethi iphendule ngokugqithisileyo, ingakumbi kwimeko yabapakishi be-FTSE 100 index, amaxabiso abo ehle afikelela kwi-20% kwinzuzo elindelweyo ngokubanzi ngaphambi kokuba ihlawulwe. Ixabiso labo ngokuqinisekileyo liyathandeka. Umlinganiselo we-P/E we-Desma yi-8.7 kuphela, ngelixa umyinge weminyaka emihlanu uyi-11.1, ngelixa umlinganiselo we-P/E we-Smurfikapa uyi-10.4, kwaye umyinge weminyaka emihlanu uyi-12.3. Ubukhulu becala, kuxhomekeke ekubeni inkampani inokubaqinisekisa na abatyali-mali ukuba banokuqhubeka nokusebenza ngendlela emangalisayo ngo-2023.ibhokisi yokuthumela ngeposi
Ixesha lokuthumela: Disemba-27-2022